A really expensive lawn |
I
spent time on the 15-day spectator disabled list before the All-Star
break. It was after the Yankees beat the Sox, on Fenway's official
100th birthday. Everybody was injured, the Sox had
negative wins at the point, and in the course of the game, I strained
my right oblique giveafuck. It could have been a lot worse. You
tear one of those things and its either surgery or learn about golf
and stare hollow-eyed and bourbon-filled at people taking really long
walks on really expensive lawns. But after a few weeks of rest and
recuperation, a couple of rehab starts in Wimbeldon and the Tour de
France, I came back in time to watch the pitching staff begin to get
it together. (Except for Jon Lester, which is like, I don't know,
Moses forgetting how to read right after getting the tablets.)
What frustrates me
the most about this team is that because of injuries we really know
nothing about it. How has Bobby Valentine been as a manager? I
don't know, he's had the JV team on the field the whole season. Have
the Red Sox recovered from last year's collapse? I don't know,
they've had the JV team on the field the whole time. Did they make
good decisions in the off-season? I don't know....well, you get it.
As it stands now, they have played one game with the team they
expected to field, and though they won that game, David Ortiz injured
his heel rounding second on an Adrian Gonzalez homerun. To reiterate
so everyone really understands, the Red Sox 2012 MVP was injured on
the exact game when the Varsity team played together for the first
time. Can you blame Papi for suspecting a curse? But even with all
the questions left unanswered by the plague of injuries, I still
think there are things we can learn from the 2012 Red Sox thus far.
Yeah, definitely the change up |
John
Farrell and Jason Varitek Mattered. Somehow, the pitching staff got
off to a slower start this year than last year and though it looks
like Beckett, Buchholz and the pen have figured it out, and the Sox
have gotten some pleasant surprises from Doubront and Morales, it's
clear this staff is not as good as it was when Farrell was coaching
and Tek was catching. This hasn't affected just game by game and
pitch by pitch decisions, but the entire process of professional
pitching, from pre-season preparation to closing out big games in
September. In other words, after pre-season, the Red Sox without
Farrell and Varitek have been less prepared to perform. And when
pitchers have struggled, it has taken them longer to solve their
struggles. I wonder if the conversion of Bard would have been more
successful (or even happened) with those two around. As we've seen
over the last couple of months, this isn't a catastrophe, it's just a
change, but it makes me wonder how quickly we can bring those two
back in some coaching capacity.
The Red Sox Win at
Scouting. Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, Kevin
Youkilis, John Lester, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Ryan Lavarnway,
Will Middlebrooks and Jonathan Papelbon, were all drafted by the Red
Sox. Daniel Nava, Felix Doubrount, and Pedro Ciriaco were all signed
out of minor leagues. One of the reasons the Sox are still in the
playoff hunt at the moment is they've had enough young talent in the
minors to keep pace in the American league. Most other teams would
already be out of it. At one point, the Rockies couldn't even field
a five-man pitching rotation. Looking at that list does raise an
interesting question; how important was Theo Epstein? In that list
of draftees there's an MVP and two MVP runner ups, a Cy Young
finalist, and the Red Sox all-time leader in saves. It would take a
lot more research and analysis than I'm willing to put in for a blog
post, but there's a chance, rather than being a baseball business
genius, Theo Epstein was just in the right place at the right time.
Red Sox Management
Will Lose Sleep Over the Extra Wild Card Spot. As the trade deadline
approaches the Red Sox have the unenviable position of having no
clear evidence of what to do. They're not so far out of the playoff
picture to be sellers at the moment, but even if they make the
playoffs, at this point they haven't shown any ability to go very
deep in them, so they're not necessarily buyers either. And what
would they buy anyway? They're not going to replace a quality Jon
Lester in any kind of reasonable trade. The outfield is already
pretty crowded, they've got two quality catchers, and a possible
future super-star in Pawtucket at that position, and Will
Middlebrooks, and Pedro Ciriaco have added depth to infield. The
problem is not that they're not hitting at all, but that they're not
getting clutch hits, which means there's no guarantee any big bat
they might bring in, will actually solve the problem. If that extra
Wild Card spot wasn't there, the Sox would probably be sellers at
this point, and could be laying the negotiating ground work for
rebuilding the team for next couple of seasons. But with it, well,
who knows what they should do.
Of course, they
still could be sellers by the trade deadline. They've struggled the
last week and a half, and have fallen below .500 again. They get
three games with the Yankees who were already killing everybody and
then they get Detroit. There is every possibility they'll be
essentially out of it by next week. But that still makes for hasty
deals. In a very strange bit of baseball business, it might make the
most sense for a team under .500, in a major market, after a
devastating close to last season, to stand pat at the trade deadline.
Not a very fun seat for Mr. Cherrington to sit in.
Or, they could get
the Varsity team back again in the next two weeks, Jon Lester could
figure it out and they could go on a tear through August, September
and October, that gets them deep into the playoffs. There's no
reason to bet on that, but there's also no reason to assume that's
impossible.